'Black Swan' fantasies - World ruled by mass-laws and facts
print'Black Swan' fantasies - World ruled by mass-laws and facts
Errors about a 'Black Swan' - ALL is ruled by Mass-laws and normal Facts
The theory of the "Black Swan" is not incorrect. It is true that people may ignore facts and pretend they are inexistent or impossible, when in fact they only don't know anything about "reality".
But I think that the theory of "Black Swan" is just another word for "Stupidity". And a can prove the matter. Why should we choose some sort of a Wonder, when in fact whatever happens could have been foreseen by any child with some intelligence?
Take some examples where a "Black Swan" Theory was assumed by error:
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World Population
Number and Percentages in Continents and Lands:
Black Swan Theory would pretend that unless 'something of absolutely unforeseen' could happen - humans would never see the following developments.
This is more than stupidity. Delavy pretends - not as Black Swan: Very normal procedures dictate the following figures (taken from a Newspaper). Common Facts will prove how crazy human developments will end in an impossible dream, due to White Swan procedures in view of normal limitations by nature, water, nourishment, pandemies, limited energy and resources - and all the rest of no longer liveable conditions on Earth:
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World Population: - 1950 - 2,569 Billion // 2009 - 6,909 Billion // 2050 - 9,150 Billion
Asia - 1950 - 55,5 % // 2009 - 60,3 % // 2050 - 57,1 %
- China - 1950 - 21,5 % // 2009 - 19,6 % // 2050 - 15,5 %
- India - 1950 - 14,7 % // 2009 - 17,6 % // 2050 - 17,6 %
Africa - 1950 - 9,0 % // 2009 - 15,0 % // 2050 - 21,8 %
Europe - 1950 - 21,6 % // 2009 - 10,6 % // 2050 - 7,6 %
North America - 1950 - 6,8 % // 2009 - 5,1 % // 2050 - 4,9 %
What a crazy Black Swan idea to tell that something may happen - those figure are a dream, without any justification anymore. Any child of 10 years of age can say:
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Economy
Wall Street World-Crash:
The breakdown of New York Stock exchange is said to be the result of a "Black Swan" due to the unforeseen results in subprime and derivative business.
What a god-damned lie: Wall Street is a logical result, when economic idiots have designed Derivative securities with zero security, zero sense and zero value. Any child could have seen that there was no need for a Black Swan to make tumble what Dynamite Prize holders,
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Politics
9/11 - Loss of
Black Swan says - it could happen or not. It was highly impossible that the 2 towers of
However, what a god-damned lie: Europeans and Americans humiliated 1500 millions of Arabs and Islam religion countries for the last 200 years. Somehow a reaction had to come. What would normal "Believers in the right religion" or "Terrorists" do, when they want to take revenge - but have no power? They would study the maps and look out for soft projects and would fall automatically on WTC or the Capitol or the White House or Wall Street, of which the Americans where so proud of. What of it, the hell, should we make tumble? It would not work with Dynamite, but perhaps with some huge Airplanes full of passengers, this could work. Let's plan and do it. No Black Swan, no coincidence, no wonder. All is a normal reflection and a reaction on injustice of a hegemonial system of Europeans and Americans. Any child could have had the idea.
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Ecology
Black Swan - a unforeseeable wonder that some waves of a Hurricane would destruct that Town? A Black Swan matter or rather the most normal reaction of Eco-Systems completely got out of Balance?
To talk of a Black Swan here is a joke. In fact, Humans have spread billions of tons of poison since 100 years into the atmosphere, when exhausting all oil wells of the world and producing a mass mobilisation of complete madness. It was a normal thing that one day, the weather and climate would get completely out of control. And some day it will start, send a hurricane with the right power exactly in direction of
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Future of Humanity
The downfall of humanity a matter of a Black Swan, because some matters in our Systems may get out of control, without any brain of higher VIP being aware of it?
Dead-sure, Dynamite Prize holders, Presidents of USA, Dictators and CEO of big Banks and other industrial Scrap may not see the point. All seems to be an ordinary excuse for normal procedure.
The world wants to see "Wonders" when they do not understand anything about their own stupidity and especially those of their Leaders and heavenly Creatures, like Obama, Putin, Sarkozy, Berlusconi, Hu and Wen, Greenspan, Ratzinger, Popper, Friedman, GW Bush, Reagan and Thatcher - in fact all politicians and economic Heroes of the present and the past.
In fact, seen under this angle of intellect, we can even mention about all Scientists, Philosophers, Theorists of economics and any "Thinker" of the world, who was only a genius of Pragmatism, with his average brain about procedures in our universe, instead of trying to be just a normal child with common sense.
Therefore, humanity has no chances whatsoever in future: Air and water are poisoned, energy and other resources nearly exhausted, our children become red of Greed already when 10 - and are forced to believe in money and growth, the universities teach how to be more rich than the rest, scientists tell us that by changing 5 percent of destruction mass power on our Eco-Systems, we would have the best Orwell world ever in the year 2100.
We have chosen to believe in the intellect of the most stupid persons that lived ever on this planet.
And now we believe rather in "Black Swans" and read that odd book 10 times than believe in normal procedure, any person could see if only it had not decided to stay blind and stupid for all life-times to come - when future generations have not one chance of seeing predictions - without basic intelligence - become true.
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Rene Delavy,
Author of "10 Maxims for continuation of Life" / "Nothing but a silent Cry" / "Not concreteness - Abstractedness rules the world" and some other 8 books and 300 English articles.